The key factors that led to the ceasefire, including what some are not telling you:

• The hardline faction of the regime accused the foreign minister and other officials of being traitors for calling for an end to the war.
• Iran’s president accused the Revolutionary Guard of sabotaging the chances of a ceasefire.
• The elimination of Majid Khademi, head of intelligence for the Revolutionary Guard, was confirmed. This brought the total to 250 regime officials and leaders eliminated, in addition to the disappearance without any news of the “new” Supreme Leader—who may be ill or dead.
• Iran’s nuclear infrastructure has been largely demolished, and its military and naval capabilities have been mostly destroyed.
• The United States was able to insert dozens of aircraft into #Iran and establish a temporary base to rescue a pilot. The operation involved nearly 100 special forces members plus several dozen fighter jets and helicopters. The operation was clear evidence of the regime’s military weakness.
• President Trump issued an aggressive ultimatum with the aim of forcing a ceasefire and exposing the factions within the regime that no longer hold real power.

Zohran Mamdani’s tax package is a warning to America. It is what you may expect when the radical left takes power. Demolition of the private sector and destruction of potential growth and jobs.

Mamdani’s plan is not ambitious nor innovative; it is precisely the interventionist system that has been implemented throughout decades in countries that now suffer stagnation and elevated unemployment. It concentrates New York City’s fiscal risk onto a narrow and mobile base of taxpayers and companies in a way that could undermine growth, jobs, and long-term stability. The likely impact on jobs and growth will not improve public services but will likely be used to bloat political spending, leading to increased dissatisfaction among taxpayers and potentially exacerbating economic inequality. Furthermore, it is deeply regressive as it hurts middle-class property owners.

“De-dollarization” was a major market story in 2024 and 2025, not because it was true, but because it sounded plausible enough to scare people out of the most in-demand assets. The reality was much simpler. The US dollar remains the world’s global reserve currency because there is no fiat alternative.

The US dollar index is rising and global demand for US dollar assets soars because there is no better option in the fiat world. For a currency to be a world reserve asset, it needs to operate with ample liquidity, a transparent financial system, economic freedom, and independent institutions. People who do not understand money promote the fantasy that currencies with capital controls, opaque financial systems, and even exchange fixing can substitute the US dollar.

Investors are concerned about the Iran war and its impact on the economy. This is something that has been well analysed.

However, we must remind that the largest risk may not come from an energy prices shock, which futures discount as temporary, but from another set of policy mistakes from governments and central banks.

If governments decide to spend and print to present themselves as the solution to the Iran war impact, and central banks decide to hike rates due to a geopolitical event that has nothing to do with credit demand and money supply, the stagflation risk may appear.

However, the two trillion-dollar crisis that no one seems to be concerned about may be more relevant: A private debt crisis.