“Recovery begins from the darkest moment” John Major
We have started to see signs of optimism in Europe supported by a macroeconomic environment that, far from being attractive, is showing some encouraging data. But the fragility of the recovery is still high.
Continue reading European Recovery Underway… And Its Threats
“The rules enshrined in countless pages behind the Basel Capital Accords did not prevent the crisis… In effect, faith in markets has given way to faith in regulation” – David T Llewellyn
“We will be the healthiest of the cemetery”. These are the words of a banker after hearing the results of the European agreement last week. Continue reading Euro Banks and the Dangers of Over-Regulation
“The ECB and the creditor nations cannot and will not save governments that are unwilling or unable to save themselves”. RBS research
Slovenia has suddenly been forgotten by markets despite a banking system with average non-performing loan rate of 20%. This is what mass liquidity does to markets. If the country is in recession and the markets remain weak, it may need between 9 and 13 billion euros between 2013 and 2015 (25-38% of GDP, according to JP Morgan). If it follows a bail-in process like Cyprus, it will likely impact European banks by c15 billion. Austria, Italy, France and Germany would be the most affected. Continue reading The ECB, Europe and The Real Growth Plan
“Low rates make banks support zombie zombie companies” Nicolas Véron