US gas ends the year as the king of commodities, up 19% YTD at $4.31/mmbtu as the injection trend reversed to a bullish storage withdrawal in the past two months. Looking to 2014, exports + coal plant retirements adding 3bcf/d of demand keep me confident of improving US gas prices. Total working storage is now at 2,974 Bcf, 562 Bcf below last year’s 3,536 Bcf and 289 Bcf below the 5-year average of 3,263 Bcf. Continue reading Commodities Update
Category Archives: Energy
Commodities Update: More Supply… Don’t Bet On Price Inflation
Brent – WTI differential shrunk recently from $20 to $11.5/bbl.WTI rallied due to the Keystone line fill. Before the pipeline goes into service it needs to be filled up with oil (600kbpd) so there is a continuous flow once it starts up. The pipeline is 485 miles long and goes from Cushing, OK to Nederland, TX. Careful, this is a technical and temporary effect. Continue reading Commodities Update: More Supply… Don’t Bet On Price Inflation
The Oil Market Is Well Supplied. Thoughts for 2014
Fans of monetary stimulus always ignore the biggest and best push for the economy. Cheap energy. Finding oil and gas.
The United States have achieved an economic stimulus equivalent to 1.3% of GDP thanks to the energy revolution brought by fracking. It is a very significant positive effect, both on the supply and demand side. Continue reading The Oil Market Is Well Supplied. Thoughts for 2014
Commodities Update
Oil still trending down ($106.8.0 Brent), WTI discount to Brent now at $12/bbl.I have been talking all month about the widening driven by tightness in Brent and ample supplies in US. Brent has stayed strong this week on the drying up of Libyan exports. No such supply issues in the US where crude stocks have risen well above the 5-yr range causing the Brent-WTI spread to widen abruptly. Continue reading Commodities Update