In February, the general consensus between large investment banks and supranational entities was that there would be a one-time hit on GDP in the first quarter from the coronavirus impact, followed by a stronger, V-shaped recovery. IMF expected a modest correction of global GDP of 0.1%, and the largest cut on estimates for 2020 growth was 0.4%.
Those days are gone.
Continue reading Global GDP Growth Estimates Are PlummetingMany countries have decided to lock down entire cities and shutdown airspace to contain the spread of coronavirus. This decision may create a massive crisis drowned in liquidity.
Governments and central banks are committed to do whatever it takes in terms of demand-side policies, spending and increasing liquidity as much as needed to avoid a 2008-style crisis. However, these measures, which were already ineffective for years, will be even less successful this time.
The monumental mistake of the Federal Reserve cutting rates this week can only be understood in the context of the rising God’s complex of central planners. An overwhelming combination of ignorance and arrogance.
Continue reading The Fed’s Irresponsible Rate Cut Accelerated PanicIn this episode of World Economics we discuss the concept of helicopter money, the mistake of using the Hong Kong example and why it is likely to be implemented… and fail.