Many countries claim they have “gold-backed” currencies, in an effort to try to provide security and investor confidence. However, the reality is that none of the world’s fiat currencies is even remotely gold-backed and even less so the Chinese yuan.

The recent improvement in global PMIs and especially in employment in the United States have created a strong optimism in markets about the recovery. However, it is important to be cautious about a V-shaped recovery when the leading indicators remain weak.

The 750 billion euro stimulus plan announced by the European Commission has been greeted by many macroeconomic analysts and investment banks with euphoria. However, we must be cautious. Why? Many would argue that a swift and decisive response to the crisis with an injection of liquidity that avoids a financial collapse and a strong fiscal impulse that cements the recovery are overwhelmingly positive measures. History and experience tell us that, indeed, the risk of disappointment regarding the positive impact on the real economy is not small.

The history of stimulus plans in the eurozone should alert us against excessive optimism.