All posts by Daniel Lacalle

About Daniel Lacalle

Daniel Lacalle (Madrid, 1967). PhD Economist and Fund Manager. Author of bestsellers "Life In The Financial Markets" and "The Energy World Is Flat" as well as "Escape From the Central Bank Trap". Daniel Lacalle (Madrid, 1967). PhD Economist and Fund Manager. Frequent collaborator with CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN, Hedgeye, Epoch Times, Mises Institute, BBN Times, Wall Street Journal, El Español, A3 Media and 13TV. Holds the CIIA (Certified International Investment Analyst) and masters in Economic Investigation and IESE.

Brokers’ “Biden Trade” May Be Misguided

Brokers' “Biden Trade” May Be Misguided

Many financial experts have rushed to make what has been regarded as “Biden trade” calls based on the projections by The Associated Press, NBC News and other news outlets of a Joe Biden presidency. The “Biden trade” is a synonym of a recommendation to invest in assets that may benefit from a Democratic presidency judging by the main policies announced throughout the campaign.

The first risk for investors is to make significant bets on radical changes of policy when the balance of power in the House and Senate may inhibit many of the headline-grabbing policy changes. We already have reports, for example, that show how the tax hikes may be halted due to a combination of a divided government and the negotiations of a new stimulus package.

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Inflation Is Not A Social Policy

Inflation Is Not A Social Policy

Central banks continue to be obsessed with inflation. Current monetary policy is like the behaviour of a reckless driver running at 200 miles per hour, looking at the rear-view mirror and thinking “we have not crashed yet, let’s accelerate”.

Central banks believe that there is no risk in current monetary policy based on two wrong ideas: 1) That there is no inflation, according to them, and 2) that benefits outstrip risks.

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United States Elections: The Risk of Copying Europe

The United States election campaign is focused primarily on how much will the next president spend and the measures to combat coronavirus. Both issues should point to one conclusion: Unlike what candidate Biden wants to do, the next United States president should not copy the European Union.

United States Elections: The Risk of Copying Europe
Pete Linforth Pixabay

As we face a second wave of coronavirus outbreak in Europe, we know that the March measures and aggressive lockdowns were a grave mistake.

The European economy is on the verge of a double-dip recession, the unemployment rate is at 8.1% compared to 7.8% in the United States but the European Union still has around 10 million furloughed jobs. Real unemployment, if we use the same calculation as in the United States, is closer to 11%.

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Central Bank Digital Currency, A Growth Or Financial Repression Tool?

Central Bank Digital Currency, A Growth Or Financial Repression Tool?

The main central banks have been discussing the idea of implementing a digital currency. The rationale behind it escapes many citizens. Most transactions in the main global currencies are conducted digitally and one could say that the largest and most traded currencies, the US Dollar, Euro, Yen, British Pound, Swiss Franc, and the Yuan are already functioning as mostly digital money.

So, what are central banks saying when they talk about a new and different digital currency? It is basically another step in the effort to gradually get rid of physical currencies, with an idea of strengthening control of the payments and make it simpler to trace the use of a particular means of payment. It is also aimed at competing with global cryptocurrencies. Most will state that the reasons behind the idea of a central bank digital currency are efficiency and improving the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.

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