How can a a small rise in bond yields scare policymakers so much?

Ned Davis Research estimates that a 2% yield in the US 10-year bond could lead the Nasdaq to fall 20%, and with it the entire stock market globally. A 2% yield can cause such disruption? How did we get to such a situation?

The pace of global recoveries since 1975 has been slower and weaker, consistently evey time, according to the OECD. Recoveries take longer and happen slower. At the same time, periods of crisis are less aggressive albeit more frequent than prior to 1975.  Another interesting evidence of the crises and recoveries since 1975 is that almost all economies end the recession period with more debt than before.

In recent weeks Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve and Christine Lagarde at the European Central Bank have commented on the likelihood of implementing digital currencies in the next years. The positives have been well explained. More transparency, ease of use and lower cost.

The European Central Bank has stated that “a digital euro would guarantee that citizens in the euro area can maintain costless access to a simple, universally accepted, safe and trusted means of payment. The digital euro would still be a euro: like banknotes but digital. It would be an electronic form of money issued by the Eurosystem (the ECB and national central banks) and accessible to all citizens and firms. A digital euro would not replace cash, but rather complement it. The Eurosystem will continue to ensure that you have access to euro cash across the euro area. A digital euro would give you an additional choice about how to pay and make it easier to do so, contributing to financial inclusion alongside cash”.

One of the key pillars of the consensus bullish view about 2021 is the Chinese recovery, supported by very optimistic estimates of growth in services and exports.

The details in the official February Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) show a different picture. It seems that the data of the Chinese economy, especially in services and exports, is inconsistent with a 6% GDP growth as most analysts expect for 2021.