All posts by Daniel Lacalle

About Daniel Lacalle

Daniel Lacalle (Madrid, 1967). PhD Economist and Fund Manager. Author of bestsellers "Life In The Financial Markets" and "The Energy World Is Flat" as well as "Escape From the Central Bank Trap". Daniel Lacalle (Madrid, 1967). PhD Economist and Fund Manager. Frequent collaborator with CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN, Hedgeye, Epoch Times, Mises Institute, BBN Times, Wall Street Journal, El Español, A3 Media and 13TV. Holds the CIIA (Certified International Investment Analyst) and masters in Economic Investigation and IESE.

The Fed’s Dovish “Tapering” And The ECB

This week, the Federal Reserve gave the most dovish “hawkish” statement ever. An apparent aggressive tapering that, in reality, means maintaining very low rates and massive repurchases for longer.

The Fed's Dovish "Tapering" And The ECB

Inflation has skyrocketed and aggressive monetary policy is the key factor in understanding it. I already explained it in my article “The Myth of Cost-Push Inflation”. The Federal Reserve has finally recognized this and has made a U-turn in its policy of maintaining stimulus despite inflationary pressures.

The Federal Reserve now expects core inflation to remain above 2.7% in 2022 (previously it expected 2.3%) and that it will be above 2% in 2023 and 2024. That means the CPI (Consumer Price Index) will probably remain above 3-4% in that period. Taking into account that it will close the year above 6%, we are talking about an accumulated inflation of more than 14% in three years, a great risk for the recovery, real wages, family savings and investment.

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The Myth Of Cost-Push Inflation

Senator Elizabeth Warren recently stated that rising prices were due to corporations increasing their profits. “This isn’t about inflation, this is about price gouging for these guys”. It is simply incorrect.

The Myth Of Cost-Push Inflation

No, corporations have not doubled their profits, and rising prices are not due to the evil doings of businesses. If evil corporations are to blame for rising prices in 2021, as Elizabeth Warren says, I imagine that they were magnanimous and generous corporations when there was low or no inflation, right?

Inflation is the tax of the poor. It destroys the purchasing power of wages and engulfs the little savings that workers accumulate. The rich can protect themselves by investing in real assets, real estate and financial, the poor cannot.

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Printing and Borrowing Always Ends Badly

As more countries copy the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy without the global demand of the US dollar, financing trade and fiscal deficits printing a weakening currency, nations become more dependent on the US dollar.

Printing and Borrowing Always Ends Badly

Neither domestic nor international citizens demand local currency, and governments continue to build large fiscal and trade imbalances believing the magic money tree will solve everything. However, as confidence in their domestic currency collapses, global US dollar-denominated debt soars because very few investors want local currency risk and central banks need to build US dollar reserves to cushion the monetary debasement blow.

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