In October, the governments of Austria and The Netherlands warned of the risk of a “great blackout”. Soaring natural gas prices, lack of security of supply and a challenging outlook of pipeline deliveries from Russia made the governments exceedingly nervous about the chances of providing cheap and reliable energy for homes in winter.

However, an unexpected ally has prevented an energy crisis in Europe and, ironically, it is an ally that was banned in most European nations: Shale gas.  

The United States December jobs report shows that the labor market remains weak.

The headline 3.9% unemployment rate looks positive, but job creation fell significantly below consensus, at 199,000 in December versus a consensus estimate of 450,000.

This paper was published in the Journal Of New Finance.

Increasing Taxes or Spending Cuts: What Is More Effective for Fiscal Consolidation?

Dr. Daniel Lacalle, Author of “Freedom or Equality”, “Escape from the Central Bank Trap”, “The Energy World Is Flat” and “Life in The Financial Markets”.

Assistant Research: Daniel Rodríguez Asensio

Keywords: Taxation, Tax Competition, Global Economy, Keynesian Model, Tax Policy, Aggregate Demand, Aggregate Supply, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Stimulus, Central Banks, Government, Crisis, Recovery, Demand-Side, Supply-Side.

JEL Classification: E12, F15, F41, H21, H87, E52, E58, H68, H25, H30, H51

The global recovery has slowed down significantly since the peak of the re-opening effect in June 2021. What many expected would be a multi-year cycle of above-trend growth is proving to be a more modest bounce. Furthermore, according to Bloomberg Economics, the global economy will likely grow in the next ten years at a slower pace than in the decade prior to the pandemic.