All posts by Daniel Lacalle

About Daniel Lacalle

Daniel Lacalle (Madrid, 1967). PhD Economist and Fund Manager. Author of bestsellers "Life In The Financial Markets" and "The Energy World Is Flat" as well as "Escape From the Central Bank Trap". Daniel Lacalle (Madrid, 1967). PhD Economist and Fund Manager. Frequent collaborator with CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN, Hedgeye, Epoch Times, Mises Institute, BBN Times, Wall Street Journal, El Español, A3 Media and 13TV. Holds the CIIA (Certified International Investment Analyst) and masters in Economic Investigation and IESE.

Europe Energy Independence Is Impossible with The Current Policies

Europe is not going to achieve a competitive energy transition with the current interventionist policies. Europe does not depend on Russian gas due to a coincidence, but because of a chain of mistaken policies. Banning nuclear in Germany, prohibiting the development of domestic natural gas resources throughout the European Union, added to a massive and expensive renewable roll-out without building a reliable back-up.

Europe Energy Independence Is Impossible with The Current Policies

Solar and wind do not reduce dependency on Russian natural gas. They are necessary but volatile and intermittent. They need back-up for security of supply from nuclear, hydro, and natural gas. Dependency rises in periods of low wind and little sun, just when prices are highest.

Continue reading Europe Energy Independence Is Impossible with The Current Policies

Commodities Do Not Cause Inflation. Money Printing Does

In this world of monetary insanity, defenders of central bank constant easing try every day to convince you that inflation is caused by numerous factors, not by currency printing.

Commodities Do Not Cause Inflation. Money Printing Does

Many blame inflation on cost-push factors or even speculation, but ultimately all those are consequences, not causes. Rising prices are always caused by more units of currency being directed to scarce or tangible assets.

Commodities ETFs are a clear example. In 2022 investors have been purchasing these products to protect themselves from inflation and generate real returns. They are not a cause, they are a consequence. With increased inflationary concerns, the likelihood of rising interest rates, and elevated geopolitical concerns, commodities-focused funds have seen record inflows in 2022. Year to date through February 25, commodities ETFs gathered $8.5 billion of net ETF inflows according to Wealthmanagement.com. This is not the full picture, though.  According to the CFTC the total value of various commodity index-related instruments purchased by institutional investors has increased from an estimated $15 billion in 2003 to an estimated $200 billion. The global Commodity Services market size is estimated at $4 trillion in 2020, according to Market Research.

Continue reading Commodities Do Not Cause Inflation. Money Printing Does

The Impact of a SWIFT Ban on Russia and the World

SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) is the global financial system that allows immediate and secure transfers of money across borders. It is the web that verifies all financial transactions. It links 11,000 banks and institutions in more than 200 countries, with 40 million messages a day. Using SWIFT ensures that transactions happen in seconds in a secure way. Around 1% of those messages involve Russian payments, according to the BBC.

As part of the West sanctions against Russia, its banks have been banned from the SWIFT system. Additionally, the United States and the European Union have announced restrictions on the Russian central bank that block access to more than $600 billion in reserves. The Bank of Russia reports that only 22% of its international reserves are US Dollars, while gold accounts for 23%.

Continue reading The Impact of a SWIFT Ban on Russia and the World

China’s Property Bubble Collapse Gets Worse

A few months ago, when investors started to discuss the troubles of Evergrande, China’s largest real estate developer, many economists saw the problem as isolated and insignificant. The consensus message was that the real estate crisis was containable and that the Evergrande default would be a single case. However, Chinese defaults on local and overseas bonds rose to a record $43 billion in 2021, according to Bloomberg, led by widespread defaults in the real estate sector.

China’s Property Bubble Collapse Gets Worse

Up until a week ago, the bonds of Zhenro Properties Group were seen as safe, and the company was widely perceived as a rare case of balance sheet strength in a troubled sector. Unfortunately, reality was significantly different, and the company warned that it may not meet its credit obligations.

Continue reading China’s Property Bubble Collapse Gets Worse