Many have read that there is a food crisis looming and there are significant concerns about grain shortages. The main reason for this possible crisis is the Ukraine invasion. However, this is not the full picture.

Many countries around the world have a large deficit of cereal production, which is essential to feed livestock. The main culprit is rising government intervention that has made costs soar even in periods of low energy prices, and an unsustainable level of restrictions that have made it impossible for farmers to continue planting and producing grain.

In 2020, Ukraine produced 4% of the world’s wheat production, and Russia 10%. Together, they produce almost as much wheat as the entire EU, but the reason is that the EU has made it impossible to produce wheat in an economical way.

The United States consumption figure seems robust. An 0.9% rise in personal spending in April looks good on paper, especially considering the challenges that the economy faces. This apparently strong figure is supporting an average consensus estimate for the second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 3% according to Blue Chip Financial Forecasts.

However, the Atlanta Fed GDP nowcast for the second quarter stands at a very low 1.9%. If this is confirmed, the United States economy may have delivered no growth in the first half of 2022 after the decline in the first quarter, narrowly avoiding a technical recession.

The most dangerous words in monetary policy and economics are “this time is different.” The big mistake of politicians in Argentina is to believe that inflation is multicausal and that everything is solved with increasing doses of interventionism.

The consumer price index in Argentina experienced a year-on-year rise of 58% in April 2022, which means 2.9 percentage points above the variation registered last March. A real catastrophe. Inflation in Argentina is more than six times higher than that of Uruguay, five times higher than that of Chile, four times higher than that of Brazil or Paraguay, neighbouring countries exposed to the same global problems.

After more than a decade of chained stimulus packages and extremely low rates, with trillions of dollars of monetary stimulus fuelling elevated asset valuations and incentivising an enormous leveraged bet on risk, the idea of a controlled explosion or a “soft landing” is impossible.

In an interview with Marketplace, Federal Reserve chairman admitted that “a soft landing is really just getting back to 2% inflation while keeping the labor market strong. And it’s quite challenging to accomplish that right now”. He went on to say that “nonetheless, we think there are pathways … for us to get there.”