All posts by Daniel Lacalle

About Daniel Lacalle

Daniel Lacalle (Madrid, 1967). PhD Economist and Fund Manager. Author of bestsellers "Life In The Financial Markets" and "The Energy World Is Flat" as well as "Escape From the Central Bank Trap". Daniel Lacalle (Madrid, 1967). PhD Economist and Fund Manager. Frequent collaborator with CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN, Hedgeye, Epoch Times, Mises Institute, BBN Times, Wall Street Journal, El Español, A3 Media and 13TV. Holds the CIIA (Certified International Investment Analyst) and masters in Economic Investigation and IESE.

Tax Cuts Do Not Cause Inflation. Printing Does.

Photo by form PxHere
Photo by form PxHere

The narrative to attack any tax cut and defend any increase in government size is reaching feverish levels. However, we must continue to remind citizens that constantly bloating government spending and increasing the size of monetary interventions are some of the causes of the widespread impoverishment of the middle class. Constantly increasing taxes and diminishing the purchasing power of the currency is wiping out the middle class in most developed nations.

Currency printing is not neutral, and it never is. It disproportionately benefits government and massively hurts real salaries and deposit savings. It is a massive transfer of wealth from savers to the indebted.

Continue reading Tax Cuts Do Not Cause Inflation. Printing Does.

Liz Truss Is Not to Blame for The U.K. Market Turmoil. The Bank of England Is

We live in strange times. The same people that vehemently defended massive deficit spending and money printing as the solution to the global economy now blame the turmoil of the UK bond and currency markets on a deficit-increasing budget.

I find it astonishing that no one of the so-called experts that have immediately placed the cause of the British market volatility on Liz Truss’ budget have said anything about the collapse of the yen and the need for Bank of Japan intervention, which has been ongoing for two weeks.

Liz Truss Is Not to Blame for The U.K. Market Turmoil. The Bank of England Is
US dollar and main currencies via Bloomberg
Continue reading Liz Truss Is Not to Blame for The U.K. Market Turmoil. The Bank of England Is

Fed pivot is not an investment thesis

In a recent Bloomberg article, a group of economists voiced their fears that the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight may create an unnecessarily deep downturn. However, the Federal Reserve does not create a downturn due to rate hikes; it creates the foundations of a crisis by unnecessarily lowering rates to negative territory and aggressively increasing its balance sheet. It is the malinvestment and excessive risk-taking fuelled by cheap money that lead to a recession.

Fed pivot is not an investment thesis

Those same economists probably saw no risk in negative rates and massive money printing. It is profoundly concerning to see that experts who remained quiet as the world accumulated $17 trillion in negative yielding bonds and central banks’ balance sheets soared to more than $20 trillion now complain that rate hikes may create a debt crisis. The debt crisis, like all market imbalances, was created when central banks led investors to believe that a negative yielding bond was a worthwhile investment because the price would rise and compensate for the loss of yield. A good old bubble.

Continue reading Fed pivot is not an investment thesis

Dollar Strength and Global Currency Debasement

Dollar Strength and Global Currency Debasement

Why are market participants scared of a strong dollar? Because for years there was a massive carry trade against the US dollar, predicated on a bet that constantly printing currency and cutting rates would never create inflation. The world got used to betting on one thing -massive money supply growth- and the opposite -weak inflation-. Cheap money became expensive, as I explained in my book, Escape from The Central Bank Trap.

The US dollar is not strong. The loss of purchasing power of the greenback is the largest of the past three decades. The US dollar is only “strong” in relative terms against other currencies that are collapsing in a global currency debasement that comes after years of monetary excess.

Continue reading Dollar Strength and Global Currency Debasement