The consensus narrative tells you that markets are weak because of Trump’s tariffs. However, that is a typical excuse that makes no sense. If tariffs were the cause of concern, markets would have tanked in 2016 and in 2021. Remember that Biden maintained and increased all of Trump’s tariffs. Between 2016 and 2024, the tariffs imposed by the European Union and China on the United States were much larger than levies against them. However, you never read or heard that the EU and China tariffs were going to destroy the economy or lead to massive inflation.
The mainstream consensus narrative always wants you to believe that tariffs are fine if imposed by socialist countries and evil if imposed by the United States. However, if the market was alarmed by tariffs and the disastrous impact they may have on the economy, German and Japanese bond yields would not have soared. Instead, they would have plummeted as investors sought refuge. Furthermore, if the world feared a US economic disaster, Treasury bond yields would not have declined.
Continue reading Markets Need More than Rate Cuts to Recover