All posts by Daniel Lacalle

About Daniel Lacalle

Daniel Lacalle (Madrid, 1967). PhD Economist and Fund Manager. Author of bestsellers "Life In The Financial Markets" and "The Energy World Is Flat" as well as "Escape From the Central Bank Trap". Daniel Lacalle (Madrid, 1967). PhD Economist and Fund Manager. Frequent collaborator with CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN, Hedgeye, Epoch Times, Mises Institute, BBN Times, Wall Street Journal, El Español, A3 Media and 13TV. Holds the CIIA (Certified International Investment Analyst) and masters in Economic Investigation and IESE.

Markets Need More than Rate Cuts to Recover

The consensus narrative tells you that markets are weak because of Trump’s tariffs. However, that is a typical excuse that makes no sense. If tariffs were the cause of concern, markets would have tanked in 2016 and in 2021. Remember that Biden maintained and increased all of Trump’s tariffs. Between 2016 and 2024, the tariffs imposed by the European Union and China on the United States were much larger than levies against them. However, you never read or heard that the EU and China tariffs were going to destroy the economy or lead to massive inflation.

The mainstream consensus narrative always wants you to believe that tariffs are fine if imposed by socialist countries and evil if imposed by the United States. However, if the market was alarmed by tariffs and the disastrous impact they may have on the economy, German and Japanese bond yields would not have soared. Instead, they would have plummeted as investors sought refuge. Furthermore, if the world feared a US economic disaster, Treasury bond yields would not have declined.

Continue reading Markets Need More than Rate Cuts to Recover

Uncharted Waters: How President Trump can Navigate Toward a More Resilient Economy

By Daniel Lacalle and Jaime Figueras

This week, financial markets have experienced unprecedented volatility.

Uncharted Waters: How President Trump can Navigate Toward a More Resilient Economy
Jaime Figueras

Two key issues dominate the national conversation: first, the shifting economic landscape under President Trump’s leadership and second, the increasing financial burden faced by older Americans. While market uncertainty looms, President Trump’s policies are aimed at fostering long-term stability and growth, both domestically and globally.

At the same time, we urgently need to address the mounting credit card debt among older Americans who are facing financial difficulties as they near retirement.

These two issues, while seemingly unrelated, share a common theme: the need for strategic planning, responsible policies, multi-horizon solutions that alleviate the immediate economic burden for older Americans as well as long-term solutions that galvanize the US economy for younger individuals.

Continue reading Uncharted Waters: How President Trump can Navigate Toward a More Resilient Economy

Beware. The ECB Digital Currency Is Coming: Surveillance Disguised as Money

Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, has announced that the digital euro will be ready for October 2025.

However, she stressed the importance of moving forward with the legislative process that would impose the digital euro, urging the European Commission, the European Council, and member states parliaments to accelerate the laws and directives that are required to make the digital euro viable.

Continue reading Beware. The ECB Digital Currency Is Coming: Surveillance Disguised as Money

Lower Government Spending Will Not Weaken the US Economy. It Will Strengthen It.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model projection for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 (Q1 2025) is now showing a slump to -1.5%. This marks a significant downward revision from the previous estimate of 2.3% on February 19, 2025.

Such an enormous decline is strange. How did we go from +2.3% to -1.5% in less than a month? That kind of collapse in an economy as large as the United States is exceedingly rare.

The immediate reaction from the media is to call this the beginning of a “Trump recession” and blame it on President Trump’s policies. Interestingly, on June 1, 2022, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimated the second quarter of 2022 growth at +1.3%. By July 1, 2022, it had dropped to -2.1%, a shift of 3.4 percentage points in 30 days. What did the media call it? “Growth scare”. A similar thing happened in the third quarter of 2021. The estimate fell from 6.1% (July 30) to 2.3% (October 1), a 3.8-point drop over two months.

Continue reading Lower Government Spending Will Not Weaken the US Economy. It Will Strengthen It.