Consensus expects inflation to rise faster in 2018. However, there are important risks to this estimate:
We should keep an eye on these estimates because they are likely to impact emerging market growth and asset valuations.
Consensus estimates chart courtesy of Focus Economics.
Daniel Lacalle is a PhD Economist, author of Escape from the Central Bank Trap and Life In The Financial Markets. He is Chief Economist at Tressis
Fans of monetary stimulus always ignore the biggest and best push for the economy. Cheap energy. Finding oil and gas.
The United States have achieved an economic stimulus equivalent to 1.3% of GDP thanks to the energy revolution brought by fracking. It is a very significant positive effect, both on the supply and demand side. Continue reading The Oil Market Is Well Supplied. Thoughts for 2014
Remember Lou Reed. My Top 20:
“However the Germans vote on 22 September, Berlin’s attitude to the EU is not going to change much” – Charles Grant
Two weeks ago, Angela Merkel and Peer Steinbrück , leading candidates for German Chancellor, held an election debate on TV. It was a quiet event, without fanfare or big accusations. There were no negative comments to the policies of budget cuts, rather the opposite. Commenting this with German friends, they told me: “The obsession with the so-called austerity is a problem in other countries, here people understand that budgets must be balanced”. Continue reading More Merkel, Better Europe